β Eredivisie 2021-22 Β· Sun, Nov 28, 11:15 AM UTC Β· ref: J. Kamphuis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 81% | 81% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.63 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 6% | 6% | 17.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam +2 | 50% | 1.93 |
| AFC Ajax +2 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 38% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 1 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel |