← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 21, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 50% | 44% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 24% | 30% | 4.00 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Willem II Tilburg −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 54% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 46% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Anthony Musaba · SC Heerenveen |
| 21' | 🟨 | Anthony Musaba · SC Heerenveen |
| 21' | 🟥 | Anthony Musaba · SC Heerenveen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Rami Kaib · SC Heerenveen |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ché Nunnely · Willem II Tilburg |
| 70' | ⚽ | Filip Stevanović · SC Heerenveen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Miquel Nelom · Willem II Tilburg |
| 76' | ⚽ | Nick Bakker · SC Heerenveen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Miquel Nelom · Willem II Tilburg |
| 78' | 🟥 | Miquel Nelom · Willem II Tilburg |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 82' | 🟨 | Filip Stevanović · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Drešević · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1999.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1478.04 | 1490.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.11 | -43.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 14.82 | 14.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |