← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 21, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 39% | 40% | 2.49 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 32% | 27% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.43 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| FC Groningen +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 55% | 1.93 | value: +5% |
| Over | 50% | 45% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Philippe Rommens · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · FC Groningen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Tomáš Suslov · FC Groningen |
| 57' | 🟨 | Iñigo Cordoba · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 70' | 🟨 | Joris Kramer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 75' | 🟨 | Iñigo Cordoba · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 75' | 🟥 | Iñigo Cordoba · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jacob Mulenga · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joris Kramer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟥 | Joris Kramer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 508.00 | 1269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1398.16 | 1512.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 59.76 | -2.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 13.68 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |