← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 44% | 46% | 2.23 | fair |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 29% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 47% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Mees Hoedemakers · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 39' | 🟨 | Sam Kersten · PEC Zwolle |
| 39' | 🟨 | Issa Kallon · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 47' | 🟨 | Siemen Voet · PEC Zwolle |
| 48' | ⚽ | Robin Maulun · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mees de Wit · PEC Zwolle |
| 61' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · PEC Zwolle |
| 79' | ⚽ | Dean Huiberts · PEC Zwolle |
| 87' | 🟨 | Robin Maulun · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| 89' |
| 🟨 |
| Roberts Uldriķis · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 5.00 | 859.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1428.16 | 1410.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.20 | 21.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.36 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |