← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 31, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 68% | 74% | 1.44 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 12% | 8% | 8.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Willem II Tilburg −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 57% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 43% | 2.48 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Leeroy Owusu · Willem II Tilburg |
| 10' | ⚽ | Bart Ramselaar · FC Utrecht |
| 25' | ⚽ | Bart Ramselaar · FC Utrecht |
| 35' | ⚽ | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Willem II Tilburg |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · FC Utrecht |
| 67' | ⚽ | Bart Ramselaar · FC Utrecht |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dries Saddiki · Willem II Tilburg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Max Svensson · Willem II Tilburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mohamed Mallahi · FC Utrecht |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Joris van Overeem · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 853.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1653.28 | 1523.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.62 | 12.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |