← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 17, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Kamphuis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 57% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.04 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 18% | 19% | 5.48 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Willem II Tilburg −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 59% | 1.89 | value: +12% |
| Under | 49% | 41% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand