← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 16, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Martens
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 41% | 49% | 2.41 | value: +17% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 31% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Heracles +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 43' | ⚽ | Rai Vloet · Heracles |
| 53' | 🟨 | Bilal Başaçıkoğlu · Heracles |
| 58' | ⚽ (og) | Mats Knoester · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 62' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 64' | ⚽ | Marco Rente · Heracles |
| 68' | 🟨 | Noah Fadiga · Heracles |
| 70' | 🟥 | Ioannis Foivos Botos · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nikolai Laursen · Heracles |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ogechika Heil · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 🟥 |
| Isac Lidberg · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mats Deijl · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 472.00 | 1203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1341.56 | 1513.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.43 | 3.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.91 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |