← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 3, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Kamphuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 54% | 49% | 1.78 | fair |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 23% | 23% | 4.29 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.30 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden +0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| AZ +0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 56% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 44% | 2.71 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 25' | 🟨 | Alex Bangura · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 33' | ⚽ | Owen Wijndal · AZ |
| 39' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 57' | 🟨 | Erik Schouten · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 72' | ⚽ | Roberts Uldriķis · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 79' | 🟨 | David Sambissa · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 86' | 🟨 | Owen Wijndal · AZ |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alex Bangura · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cambuurstadion |
| 🟥 |
| Alex Bangura · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zakaria Aboukhlal · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 825.00 | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1417.03 | 1691.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 68.91 | -32.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 2.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.83 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.74 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |