← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 78% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.98 | fair |
| NEC win | 7% | 6% | 14.84 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −1.75 | 53% | 1.81 |
| NEC −1.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 68% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 32% | 2.77 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Mattijs Branderhorst · NEC |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Orkun Kökçü · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 17' | ⚽ | Luis Sinisterra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 32' | ⚽ | Magnus Mattsson · NEC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Cas Odenthal · NEC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Orkun Kökçü · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 74' | ⚽ | Calvin Verdonk · NEC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · NEC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Guus Til · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 89' | ⚽ | Guus Til · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Feijenoord |
| 🟨 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 86.00 | 451.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1707.89 | 1470.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.35 | 15.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |