← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 18, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 88% | 86% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 11% | 14.08 | value: +56% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 3% | 2% | 36.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax −3 | 53% | 1.85 |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden −3 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 83% | 80% | 1.14 | fair |
| Under | 17% | 20% | 5.85 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand