← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sun, Sep 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Dieperink
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 46% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 27% | 22% | 3.66 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| SC Heerenveen −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Tibor Halilović · SC Heerenveen |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nicolas Madsen · SC Heerenveen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Laros Duarte · FC Groningen |
| 68' | ⚽ | Cyril Ngonge · FC Groningen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tibor Halilović · SC Heerenveen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lucas Woudenberg · SC Heerenveen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 84' | 🟥 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filip Stevanović · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Euroborg |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1199.00 | 1929.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1549.16 | 1497.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.07 | -20.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 14.77 | 13.91 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 26.04 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |