← Eredivisie 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 11, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 57% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.26 | value: +25% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 19% | 16% | 5.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 47% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 53% | 2.36 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand