β Eredivisie 2021-22 Β· Sat, Aug 28, 04:45 PM UTC Β· ref: K. Blom
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 38% | 29% | 2.61 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 35% | 47% | 2.80 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Twente '65 +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand