← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, May 9, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 67% | 62% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.27 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 15% | 19% | 6.50 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax +1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 60% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 40% | 3.41 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Marcos Senesi · AFC Ajax |
| 38' | 🟨 | Tyrell Malacia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 44' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | 🟥 | Edson Álvarez · AFC Ajax |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tyrell Malacia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 60' | 🟥 | Tyrell Malacia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 67' | ⚽ (og) | Ridgeciano Haps · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | ⚽ | Mohammed Kudus · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadion Feijenoord |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 586.00 | 1224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.76 |
| elo | 1672.16 | 1901.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.84 | 3.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 55.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 2.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | 1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 25.68 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |