← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, May 2, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 73% | 73% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 9% | 13% | 17.00 | value: +118% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| ADO Den Haag +1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 62% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 38% | 3.02 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Róbert Boženík · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 13' | ⚽ | Jonas Arweiler · ADO Den Haag |
| 15' | 🟨 | Vicente Besuijen · ADO Den Haag |
| 30' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 59' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 70' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 88' | 🟨 | Milan van Ewijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 89' | 🟨 | Michiel Kramer · ADO Den Haag |
| 89' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lucas Pratto · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 487.00 |
| 579.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1345.91 | 1679.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.60 | 9.55 |
| eye test v1 | -1.48 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.45 |
| state index | -1.84 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |