← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, May 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 63% | 67% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.62 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Willem II Tilburg −1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 33' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · FC Utrecht |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sebastian Holmén · Willem II Tilburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Willem II Tilburg |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Sven van Beek · FC Utrecht |
| 57' | ⚽ | Sebastian Holmén · Willem II Tilburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 82' | ⚽ | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days |
| 670.00 |
| 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1617.09 | 1462.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.93 | 9.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 47.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 6.18 | 8.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -1.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |