← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 91% | 92% | 1.05 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 4% | 16.47 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 3% | 4% | 51.00 | value: +79% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ADO Den Haag −3.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| AFC Ajax −3.5 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 81% | 68% | 1.17 | fair |
| Under | 19% | 32% | 5.19 | value: +65% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 2 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand