← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 21, 01:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 39% | 32% | 2.50 | fair |
| AZ win | 36% | 33% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 35% | 3.90 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PSV +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| AZ +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 68% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 32% | 2.73 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.