β Eredivisie 2020-21 Β· Fri, Mar 19, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. van den Kerkhof
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 37% | 40% | 2.64 | value: +5% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 35% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| SC Heerenveen +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 2 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand