← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 14, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Kamphuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 52% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 22% | 23% | 4.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Vitesse −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 63% | 1.87 | value: +18% |
| Under | 48% | 37% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wittek · Vitesse |
| 23' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Vitesse |
| 41' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 44' | ⚽ | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 48' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · FC Utrecht |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mimoun Mahi · FC Utrecht |
| 51' | 🟨 | Loïs Openda · Vitesse |
| 54' | 🟨 | Eric Oelschlägel · FC Utrecht |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 57' | ⚽ | Maximilian Wittek · Vitesse |
| 79' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 82' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Vitesse |
| 82' | 🟥 | Riechedly Bazoer · Vitesse |
| 88' | 🟨 | Daan Huisman · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 622.00 |
| 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.27 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1610.48 | 1616.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.15 | -20.55 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 37.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.73 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |