← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 13, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Martens
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 57% | 61% | 1.71 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.91 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 18% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| ADO Den Haag +0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +5% |
| Under | 49% | 45% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Juan Castillo · ADO Den Haag |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ismail Azzaoui · Heracles |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marko Vejinović · ADO Den Haag |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Noah Fadiga · ADO Den Haag |
| 71' | 🟨 | Milan van Ewijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 72' | ⚽ | Sinan Bakış · Heracles |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bobby Adekanye · ADO Den Haag |
| 83' | ⚽ | Rai Vloet · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michiel Kramer · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youness Mokhtar · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days |
| 437.00 |
| 986.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1372.51 | 1513.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.33 | -10.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 15.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.95 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.19 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |