← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Kuipers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 48% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 27% | 30% | 3.59 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 4.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AZ −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 65% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 35% | 2.88 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Marcos Senesi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 9' | 🟨 | Yukinari Sugawara · AZ |
| 22' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · AZ |
| 26' | ⚽ | Luis Sinisterra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 41' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · AZ |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 64' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · AZ |
| 69' | 🟨 | Eric Botteghin · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 75' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 83' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 89.00 |
| 516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.77 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1724.64 | 1673.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.15 | -2.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 46.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.86 | 3.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.50 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |