← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Feb 28, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: K. Blom
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 54% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 21% | 17% | 4.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Sparta Rotterdam −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 62% | 1.85 | value: +14% |
| Under | 47% | 38% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel |