← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Wed, Feb 24, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Mulder
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 55% | 55% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.88 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 20% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ADO Den Haag −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Willem II Tilburg −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 50% | 2.21 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |