← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Feb 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 64% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.70 | value: +24% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| ADO Den Haag −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.46 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |