← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Gerrets
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Waalwijk win | 40% | 28% | 2.40 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 33% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 38% | 3.77 | value: +45% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Waalwijk +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 51% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 49% | 2.33 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand