← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Wed, Dec 23, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 84% | 81% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 13% | 9.74 | value: +27% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 5% | 6% | 19.00 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax +2.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Willem II Tilburg +2.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 79% | 70% | 1.21 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 30% | 4.68 | value: +42% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 32 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 12 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |