← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 6, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 82% | 83% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 8.22 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 6% | 5% | 19.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag −2.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Utrecht −2.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 69% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Lassana Faye · ADO Den Haag |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ilay Elmkies · ADO Den Haag |
| 48' | ⚽ | Justin Hoogma · FC Utrecht |
| 56' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · FC Utrecht |
| 66' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · FC Utrecht |
| 66' | 🟥 | Adrian Dalmau · FC Utrecht |
| 71' | 🟨 | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
| 85' | ⚽ | Michiel Kramer · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vicente Besuijen · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samy Bourard · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 524.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.51 | 1.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| elo | 1585.75 | 1410.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.12 | -27.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -16.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.28 | -1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |