← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 24, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Perez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 38% | 38% | 2.55 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 35% | 37% | 2.83 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| PEC Zwolle +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 66% | 1.75 | value: +16% |
| Under | 45% | 34% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand