← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 4, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 59% | 64% | 1.66 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.56 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 19% | 19% | 5.50 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Zakaria Aboukhlal · AZ |
| 14' | ⚽ | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 19' | ⚽ | Zakaria Aboukhlal · AZ |
| 33' | ⚽ | Dani de Wit · AZ |
| 55' | 🟨 | Marco Bizot · AZ |
| 56' | 🟨 | Myron Boadu · AZ |
| 57' | ⚽ | Abdou Harroui · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 64' | ⚽ | Dirk Abels · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 67' | 🟨 | Zakaria Aboukhlal · AZ |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marco Bizot · AZ |
| 85' | 🟥 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Lennart Thy · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sven Mijnans · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sven Mijnans · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 856.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1439.44 | 1700.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.88 | -0.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 7.82 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.74 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 24.12 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |