← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Sep 27, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: D. Higler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 83% | 74% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 9.00 | value: +12% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 6% | 14% | 19.00 | value: +157% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −2.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| ADO Den Haag −2.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 66% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 34% | 3.72 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 11 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand