← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sat, Sep 12, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Martens
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 47% | 37% | 2.10 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 27% | 33% | 3.60 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SC Heerenveen −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Willem II Tilburg −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 51% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 49% | 2.29 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand