← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 8, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 65% | 66% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 15% | 13% | 6.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Heracles −1.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 53% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 47% | 2.52 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Dario Van Den Buijs · Heracles |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Clint Leemans · Waalwijk |
| 28' | ⚽ | Anas Tahiri · Waalwijk |
| 30' | ⚽ | Dario Van Den Buijs · Heracles |
| 34' | ⚽ | Silvester van der Water · Heracles |
| 41' | 🟨 | Melle Meulensteen · Waalwijk |
| 52' | ⚽ | Silvester van der Water · Heracles |
| 58' | 🟨 | Maximilian Rossmann · Heracles |
| 64' | 🟨 | Juriën Gaari · Waalwijk |
| 66' | ⚽ | Delano Burgzorg · Heracles |
| 73' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadion Erve Asito |
| 🟨 |
| Hannes Delcroix · Waalwijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 616.00 | 616.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1516.80 | 1374.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.90 | 1.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |