← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 1, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 60% | 56% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.53 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 18% | 23% | 5.50 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Waalwijk +1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Utrecht +1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 42% | 2.51 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand