← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Fri, Feb 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Heracles win | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +4% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 19% | 17% | 5.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Heracles −1 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 57% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand