← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 42% | 31% | 2.32 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 31% | 42% | 3.10 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Twente '65 −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 45% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Aitor Cantalapiedra · FC Twente '65 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mohamed Rayhi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 59' | 🟨 | Julio Pleguezuelo · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dirk Abels · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 80' | ⚽ | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mica Pinto · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mohamed Rayhi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 87' | 🟥 | Mohamed Rayhi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Queensy Menig · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noa Lang · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days |
| 853.00 |
| 610.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1425.96 | 1439.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.86 | 16.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |