← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Jan 26, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Erwin Blank, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 56% | 47% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +11% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 21% | 27% | 4.72 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Willem II Tilburg −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| PEC Zwolle −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 54% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 46% | 2.45 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |