β Eredivisie 2019-20 Β· Fri, Jan 24, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 67% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.88 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 13% | 12% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ADO Den Haag β1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Utrecht β1.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 50% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 50% | 2.55 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 3 | Fouls | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand