← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Fri, Jan 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 43% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC Utrecht +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 58% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 42% | 2.56 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
| 25' | 🟨 | Dean Huiberts · PEC Zwolle |
| 27' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mitchell van Rooijen · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joris van Overeem · FC Utrecht |
| 53' | ⚽ | Kenneth Paal · PEC Zwolle |
| 67' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · PEC Zwolle |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 71' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 86' | ⚽ | Issah Abass |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| 89' | ⚽ | Yuta Nakayama · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 230.00 |
| 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1445.80 | 1606.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.57 | -15.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 40.10 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 27.01 | 26.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |