← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 22, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 89% | 88% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 9% | 13.91 | value: +19% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 3% | 3% | 34.00 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag −3.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| AFC Ajax −3.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83% | 72% | 1.14 | fair |
| Under | 17% | 28% | 5.76 | value: +59% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 23' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · AFC Ajax |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ryan Gravenberch · AFC Ajax |
| 43' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thom Haye · ADO Den Haag |
| 48' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 63' | ⚽ | Lassina Traore · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | 🟨 | Răzvan Marin · AFC Ajax |
| 78' | 🟨 | Shaquille Pinas · ADO Den Haag |
| 80' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
| 13 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 80' | 🟥 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sontje Hansen · AFC Ajax |
| 89' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Onana · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | John Goossens · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 720.00 | 2150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1880.74 | 1496.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.37 | -31.59 |
| eye test v1 | 2.03 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.75 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 41.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 7.74 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 28.51 |
| state index | 1.18 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |