← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Waalwijk −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 55% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 45% | 2.87 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Hans Mulder · Waalwijk |
| 13' | ⚽ | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 15' | 🟨 | Hans Mulder · Waalwijk |
| 31' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · Waalwijk |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 42' | 🟨 | Martin Angha · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | ⚽ | Vitalie Damașcan · Fortuna Sittard |
| 56' | 🟨 | Felix Passlack · Fortuna Sittard |
| 58' | ⚽ | Vitalie Damașcan · Fortuna Sittard |
| 76' | 🟨 | Àlex Carbonell · Fortuna Sittard |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 13 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| 81' |
| 🟨 |
| Etienne Vaessen · Waalwijk |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stijn Spierings · Waalwijk |
| 83' | 🟥 | Darren Maatsen · Waalwijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1468.00 | 531.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1429.75 | 1382.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.42 | 23.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |