← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 41% | 39% | 2.37 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 31% | 33% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Groningen +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 57% | 1.92 | value: +9% |
| Over | 49% | 43% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 20' | ⚽ | Gabriel Gudmundsson · FC Groningen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 42' | ⚽ | Tomáš Necid · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | 🟥 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 2142.00 | 561.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1496.86 | 1551.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.67 | 1.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| league points | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 23.54 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |