← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 8, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 49% | 44% | 1.95 | fair |
| Heracles win | 27% | 31% | 3.59 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.13 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Heracles −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sparta Rotterdam −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 56% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 44% | 2.68 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 13 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel StadionVeld |