← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 7, 06:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 83% | 87% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 9.00 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 6% | 4% | 17.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PSV −2.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Fortuna Sittard −2.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 76% | 64% | 1.26 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 36% | 4.00 | value: +43% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 13 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.