← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 1, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 81% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.50 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 8% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +2 | 51% | 1.90 |
| AFC Ajax +2 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77% | 68% | 1.25 | fair |
| Under | 23% | 32% | 4.20 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Xandro Schenk · FC Twente '65 |
| 15' | ⚽ | Keito Nakamura · FC Twente '65 |
| 19' | ⚽ | Aitor Cantalapiedra · FC Twente '65 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Noa Lang · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 50' | 🟨 | Godfried Roemeratoe · FC Twente '65 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Noa Lang · AFC Ajax |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lindon Selahi · FC Twente '65 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 70' | ⚽ | Noa Lang · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Răzvan Marin |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noussair Mazraoui · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 791.00 |
| 699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1447.06 | 1903.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.47 | 17.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 2.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 18.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 7.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 9.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 10.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.57 |
| state index | -0.22 | 2.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |