← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 10, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 80% | 86% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 11% | 8.00 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 8% | 4% | 13.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −2 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Waalwijk −2 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 63% | 1.27 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 37% | 4.00 | value: +49% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Jan-Arie van der Heijden · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 10' | 🟨 | Hans Mulder · Waalwijk |
| 14' | ⚽ | Darren Maatsen · Waalwijk |
| 19' | ⚽ | Sylla Sow · Waalwijk |
| 25' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 34' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 64' | 🟨 | Hannes Delcroix · Waalwijk |
| 78' | 🟨 | Daan Rienstra · Waalwijk |
| 80' | 🟨 | Orkun Kökçü · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadion Feijenoord |
| 85' |
| 🟨 |
| Clint Leemans · Waalwijk |
| 85' | 🟨 | Stijn Spierings · Waalwijk |
| 85' | 🟥 | Stijn Spierings · Waalwijk |
| 85' | ⚽ | Marcos Senesi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 40.00 | 497.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1654.65 | 1378.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.21 | 0.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| league points | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 2.82 | 7.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 22.97 | — |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |