← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Fri, Nov 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 83% | 79% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 9.12 | value: +21% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 6% | 8% | 17.00 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PEC Zwolle +2.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AFC Ajax +2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 79% | 69% | 1.20 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 31% | 4.89 | value: +50% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand