← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Oct 6, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 74% | 62% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 19% | 6.65 | value: +29% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 10% | 18% | 10.00 | value: +85% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +1.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 73% | 62% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 38% | 3.54 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |