← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Oct 6, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 86% | 77% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 14% | 10.90 | value: +53% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 5% | 9% | 23.00 | value: +115% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax +2.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| ADO Den Haag +2.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 80% | 64% | 1.18 | fair |
| Under | 20% | 36% | 4.97 | value: +77% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand