← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 28, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 84% | 87% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 9.55 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 5% | 4% | 20.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Groningen −2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| AFC Ajax −2.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 72% | 1.28 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 28% | 3.76 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 32 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand